Urban Land Institute’s Seattle Reality Check 2008 - in GIS data they trust.

On April 30th the Urban Land Institute will host Reality Check 2008. At this event elected officials, biz leaders, civic activisits, and environmentalists will gather to undertake a number of exercises with GIS data, Legos, maps and tape to try and map out growth scenarios for Seattle.

Back in the day when I worked in the coffee business, we used GIS data to determine the optimal locations for our stores. I thought this was a good approach towards deciding where something should be built at that very moment, but didn’t really look at it as a tool to determine what the area would look like in 5, 10, or 50 years. The reason for this is that nobody knows what’s going to happen in any area in the future.

The one criticism I have about an event like this is that although it’s fun to redistribute blocks of future growth around the region it runs the risk of casting a blind eye on so many realities (like a neighborhood’s wealth and power) that can quickly make the exercise irrelevant.

So, I have one fun scenario for Reality Check 2008 I would like to suggest. Take your forecasted population growth Legos and break them out into groups based on the following income/power groups. (In this case ‘power’ refers to the ability to influence government decisions - ie public school investment, levels of police protection, etc…)

Then, honestly assign to different neighborhoods the kind of wealth and power combinations they would realistically accept. For example, I’m going to assume Mercer Island would only accept ‘High/High’ and ‘Medium/High’ wealth/power development.

Once you’ve done that, now try and distribute your blocks.

And what will these results suggest for future planning? I’d say it will show you where not to expect much from certain neighborhoods about their willingness to accept multi-family development growth or use public transit for anything other than commuting to work. The results may be a little stark, but it would give a more realistic view of what the challenges for regional planners will look like in the future.

Anyway, just something to think about.

Photo from Seattle Reality Check -”Hmmm…I’m sure Hunts Point and Medina wouldn’t mind supporting multi-family housing, let’s put a blue block there.”